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The polls are open for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, though analysts suggest PVV is unlikely of joining the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously achieved a shock top result and established a four-party right-leaning coalition that lasted barely a year, is now marginally ahead in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

However, the far-right party's popularity has declined since the previous election, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the previous government in June over a dispute concerning his controversial immigration plans.

Major Parties and Projections

Following a election period focused on topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's acute housing crisis, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, expected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to more than double its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the PVV, VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with several facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Political Division

Under the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the national vote earns a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – which include senior-focused parties, youth parties, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and sports parties – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of division ensures that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and Holland has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from power. But, opponents and experts argue that winning the most seats does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is uncertain and coalition talks may require months, analysts suggest that following the most radical administration in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive alliance headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is anticipated soon after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.