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The historic Ashes series may offer a reason to cheer, but this contest will also witness the Australian team celebrate more birthday parties than an arcade in the nineties. New boy Jake Weatherald celebrated his 31st a day before the squad was named. Nathan Lyon celebrates 38 the day preceding the Test in Perth. Beau Webster reaches 32 just ahead of the Brisbane match, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on the second day in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood becomes 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 by the time January is over.

Ageing Squad Fascination Grows

For two or three years there has been mounting fascination with the age of this team and particularly the bowling unit. It is unusual to have nearly all player in a Test side being over 30, except for novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and custody-weekend visitor Sam Konstas. But it didn’t logically follow that older age was a disadvantage: a Test team boasting a four-bowler lineup with over 1,500 wickets between them is hardly a weakness, and it makes sense that all of those bowlers are deep into their careers.

I've never felt this sure at the beginning of an Ashes tour | a former player

Perhaps what most amplified the discussion is that the backup bowlers over that period, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also deep into their thirties. Emerging pacemen have briefly joined squads – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before disappearing for years with injury, meaning there has been no obvious replacement plan.

Change Imposed by Setbacks

So far, that hasn’t mattered, as the Big Four plus Boland have kept on performing. Any team knows that having a batch of same-generation players might mean a group of simultaneous retirements, but so far change has remained hypothetical: a process that would certainly be arriving the mountain when she comes, but one that hadn’t yet steamed into view.

Now, suddenly, change is here, forced upon this Aussie team in the space of a few weeks. The back injury to Pat Cummins was greeted with equanimity: he would likely only miss the opening match, was the Cricket Australia view, and as the first-change bowler behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could comfortably be replaced by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has gone down with a hamstring injury, the balance undergoes a far greater change with two players missing rather than a single one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two tight-line right-armers give the balance and control that enables Starc’s left-arm pace and swing to be used more as a weapon of attack. Losing both of them means a fundamental shift in the balance of the side. Boland taking the new ball is not unusual in his domestic career, but he has been so effective in Tests entering the attack after seven or eight overs of early pressure. Now he’ll probably have to be the man up front.

Debutant Confronts Pressure

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at thirty-one years of age himself isn't an overawed youth, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A packed stadium, half of it English, for the first Test of a eagerly awaited Ashes series will not make for an simple first match, no matter how many media stories describe him as relaxed. He could be wheeled onto the ground on a sun lounger and still be anxious.

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It's uncertain, it might all go smoothly for this new attack. It might not. What is striking is how quickly Australia have transitioned from the surety of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the unknown of Starc, Lyon, mumble mumble. Who knows what new injuries the opening match may bring. Who knows whether Cummins will be good to go for the Brisbane Test, and good to back up after that match, given how complicated stress injuries can be. It's uncertain how long Hazlewood might be sidelined, with a track record of going down early in tournaments and a pattern of minor injuries becoming extended absences.

Outlook Uncertain

The latter part of the contest may see the main four bowlers reunited and all performing well. Or it might experience transition setting in much earlier than the long-term aim of 2027 in the UK. Not through Neser, who is apparently next in line and could be a great day-night Brisbane option, but after that with choices uncertain. Sean Abbott was in the original team, though he’s now also injured and has never played a Test match. Richardson has just had his injury-prone arm repaired, and this format is not the place for easing into one’s work. Beyond them lies the true uncertainty, and amid it all a chance for the opposing side. You can sense that train a-coming, rolling round the bend, and the English team hasn't seen the success since they can't recall when.